League One · Matchweek 15
Milton Keynes Dons
MIL
Burton Albion
BUR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
MK Dons40%
Draw28%
Burton32%
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.22
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.6%
- 1–010.6%
- 0–19.2%
- 2–18.6%
- 0–08.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
MK Dons get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
48%Possession47%
33%Territory34%
43%From set plays23%
0.13Chance quality0.10
8.0%Directness5.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for MK Dons, 3 for Burton. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 40 of 72 matches, not the full season.