League One · Matchweek 15
Milton Keynes Dons
MIL
Burton Albion
BUR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
MK Dons54%
Draw25%
Burton21%
Expected goals
1.77 – 1.06
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.1%
- 1–011.0%
- 2–19.8%
- 2–09.1%
- 0–06.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Burton get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
50%Possession49%
37%Territory34%
38%From set plays54%
0.14Chance quality0.10
9.0%Directness5.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for MK Dons, 3 for Burton. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 35 of 155 matches, not the full season.