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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

League One · Matchweek 15

Bromley

BRO

Notts County

NOT

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Bromley34%
Draw30%
Notts County36%

Expected goals

1.20 – 1.23

Over 2.5

43%

Both to score

51%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–113.1%
  • 0–111.1%
  • 1–010.8%
  • 0–010.2%
  • 1–27.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

40%Possession44%
43%Territory29%
46%From set plays35%
0.08Chance quality0.09
8.5%Directness4.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Bromley, 3 for Notts County. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 40 of 72 matches, not the full season.