League One · Matchweek 14
Peterborough United
PET
Luton Town
LUT
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Peterborough34%
Draw27%
Luton40%
Expected goals
1.37 – 1.49
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.9%
- 0–19.0%
- 1–28.6%
- 1–08.1%
- 2–17.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
60%Possession55%
35%Territory28%
22%From set plays34%
0.09Chance quality0.12
3.8%Directness4.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Peterborough, 4 for Luton. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Peterborough
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 40 of 72 matches, not the full season.