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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

League One · Matchweek 14

Mansfield Town

MAN

Notts County

NOT

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Mansfield46%
Draw28%
Notts County26%

Expected goals

1.43 – 1.03

Over 2.5

44%

Both to score

50%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–012.7%
  • 1–112.6%
  • 0–09.7%
  • 2–19.0%
  • 0–18.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

46%Possession44%
40%Territory29%
24%From set plays35%
0.10Chance quality0.09
7.2%Directness4.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Mansfield, 3 for Notts County. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 40 of 72 matches, not the full season.