Club Football Intelligence

League One · Matchweek 13

Sat, 24 Oct, 14:00 UTC

Stevenage

STE

14:00 UTC

Milton Keynes Dons

MIL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Stevenage49%

Draw28%

MK Dons24%

Expected goals

1.47 – 0.97

Over 2.5

44%

Both to score

49%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

1–013.3%
1–112.4%
0–09.8%
2–19.2%
2–09.0%

How they playPossession, press, how they create

MK Dons will have the ball; Stevenage will not mind.

38%Possession48%

37%Territory33%

24%From set plays43%

0.13Chance quality0.13

9.6%Directness8.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Stevenage, 4 for MK Dons. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Stevenage

Dan KempMF3G 1A 1.51/90
Josh MagennisFW1G 0A 0.43/90
Oliver SandersonFW1G 0A 0.42/90

MK Dons

Aaron CollinsFW3G 1A 1.43/90
Callum PatersonFW1G 1A 0.57/90
Daniel CrowleyMF0G 1A 0.40/90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 40 of 72 matches, not the full season.