Club Football Intelligence

League One · Matchweek 13

Sat, 24 Oct, 14:00 UTC

Oxford United

OXF

14:00 UTC

Bradford City

BRA

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Oxford Utd29%

Draw30%

Bradford42%

Expected goals

1.05 – 1.31

Over 2.5

42%

Both to score

49%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

1–113.1%
0–112.7%
0–010.7%
1–09.9%
1–28.5%

How they playPossession, press, how they create

Bradford get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

54%Possession53%

32%Territory41%

12%From set plays28%

0.18Chance quality0.10

5.5%Directness6.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Oxford Utd, 3 for Bradford. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Oxford Utd

Mo MissangaFW1G 1A 0.86/90
Mark HarrisFW2G 0A 0.73/90
Siriki DembéléFW1G 1A 0.72/90

Bradford

Bobby PointonMF1G 0A 0.39/90
Jake BeesleyFW0G 1A 0.39/90
Antoni SarcevicMF1G 0A 0.37/90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 40 of 72 matches, not the full season.