League One · Matchweek 13
Luton Town
LUT
Leicester City
LEI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Luton61%
Draw22%
Leicester17%
Expected goals
2.01 – 1.02
Over 2.5
57%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–010.3%
- 2–110.0%
- 1–19.9%
- 2–09.8%
- 3–16.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
55%Possession60%
28%Territory31%
34%From set plays27%
0.12Chance quality0.10
4.1%Directness2.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Luton, 3 for Leicester. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 40 of 72 matches, not the full season.