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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

League One · Matchweek 13

Doncaster Rovers

DON

Sheffield Wednesday

SHE

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Doncaster49%
Draw25%
Sheff Wed26%

Expected goals

1.72 – 1.20

Over 2.5

55%

Both to score

58%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.3%
  • 1–09.8%
  • 2–19.6%
  • 2–07.7%
  • 0–16.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Doncaster get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

57%Possession52%
36%Territory34%
34%From set plays17%
0.12Chance quality0.11
6.7%Directness4.8%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Doncaster, 3 for Sheff Wed. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 40 of 72 matches, not the full season.