League One · Matchweek 12
Oxford United
OXF
Wigan Athletic
WIG
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Oxford Utd42%
Draw26%
Wigan32%
Expected goals
1.55 – 1.34
Over 2.5
54%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.7%
- 1–09.1%
- 2–18.9%
- 0–17.7%
- 1–27.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Wigan get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
54%Possession49%
32%Territory35%
12%From set plays32%
0.18Chance quality0.13
5.5%Directness5.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Oxford Utd, 4 for Wigan. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 40 of 72 matches, not the full season.