League One · Matchweek 12
Burton Albion
BUR
Bradford City
BRA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Burton29%
Draw32%
Bradford39%
Expected goals
0.97 – 1.16
Over 2.5
36%
Both to score
44%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 0–114.0%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–013.3%
- 1–011.3%
- 1–27.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
47%Possession53%
34%Territory41%
23%From set plays28%
0.10Chance quality0.10
5.5%Directness6.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Burton, 3 for Bradford. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 40 of 72 matches, not the full season.