League One · Matchweek 11
Wigan Athletic
WIG
Reading
REA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Wigan30%
Draw26%
Reading43%
Expected goals
1.31 – 1.59
Over 2.5
54%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.7%
- 0–19.2%
- 1–29.1%
- 1–07.5%
- 2–17.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
49%Possession48%
35%Territory29%
32%From set plays23%
0.13Chance quality0.15
5.5%Directness5.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Wigan, 3 for Reading. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 40 of 72 matches, not the full season.