League One · Matchweek 11
Sheffield Wednesday
SHE
AFC Wimbledon
AFC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Sheff Wed47%
Draw27%
Wimbledon26%
Expected goals
1.54 – 1.12
Over 2.5
49%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.1%
- 1–011.2%
- 2–19.3%
- 0–07.9%
- 2–07.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Wimbledon get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
52%Possession46%
34%Territory37%
17%From set plays44%
0.11Chance quality0.10
4.8%Directness7.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Sheff Wed, 5 for Wimbledon. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 40 of 72 matches, not the full season.