League One · Matchweek 11
Leicester City
LEI
Doncaster Rovers
DON
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Leicester29%
Draw26%
Doncaster45%
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.58
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.8%
- 0–19.8%
- 1–29.2%
- 1–07.6%
- 2–17.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
60%Possession57%
31%Territory36%
27%From set plays34%
0.10Chance quality0.12
2.6%Directness6.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Leicester, 3 for Doncaster. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 40 of 72 matches, not the full season.