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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

League One · Matchweek 10

Stockport County

STO

Barnsley

BAR

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Stockport County61%
Draw21%
Barnsley18%

Expected goals

2.16 – 1.15

Over 2.5

63%

Both to score

61%

Fair handicap

-1.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 2–19.8%
  • 1–19.1%
  • 2–08.6%
  • 1–08.5%
  • 3–17.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

54%Possession60%
31%Territory26%
36%From set plays21%
0.12Chance quality0.09
4.7%Directness6.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Stockport County, 3 for Barnsley. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 40 of 72 matches, not the full season.