League One · Matchweek 10
Milton Keynes Dons
MIL
Reading
REA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
MK Dons29%
Draw26%
Reading45%
Expected goals
1.28 – 1.61
Over 2.5
54%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.6%
- 0–19.4%
- 1–29.2%
- 1–07.3%
- 2–17.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
MK Dons get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
48%Possession48%
33%Territory29%
43%From set plays23%
0.13Chance quality0.15
8.0%Directness5.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for MK Dons, 3 for Reading. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 40 of 72 matches, not the full season.