League One · Matchweek 9
Wigan Athletic
WIG
Mansfield Town
MAN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Wigan21%
Draw25%
Mansfield54%
Expected goals
1.05 – 1.77
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.1%
- 0–111.1%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–29.1%
- 0–06.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
47%Possession51%
28%Territory41%
23%From set plays16%
0.11Chance quality0.13
4.1%Directness6.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Wigan, 3 for Mansfield. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 35 of 155 matches, not the full season.