League One · Matchweek 9
AFC Wimbledon
AFC
Stevenage
STE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Wimbledon29%
Draw31%
Stevenage40%
Expected goals
1.01 – 1.21
Over 2.5
38%
Both to score
46%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 0–113.4%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–012.3%
- 1–010.9%
- 1–28.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Wimbledon get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
46%Possession38%
37%Territory37%
44%From set plays24%
0.10Chance quality0.13
7.2%Directness9.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 5 for Wimbledon, 3 for Stevenage. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 40 of 72 matches, not the full season.