League One · Matchweek 9
AFC Wimbledon
AFC
Stevenage
STE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Wimbledon37%
Draw28%
Stevenage34%
Expected goals
1.32 – 1.27
Over 2.5
47%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.7%
- 1–010.2%
- 0–19.8%
- 0–08.7%
- 2–18.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
40%Possession47%
34%Territory36%
26%From set plays23%
0.09Chance quality0.10
8.3%Directness4.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Wimbledon, 2 for Stevenage. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Stevenage
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 35 of 155 matches, not the full season.