League One · Matchweek 8
Bradford City
BRA
Barnsley
BAR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Bradford55%
Draw26%
Barnsley19%
Expected goals
1.63 – 0.89
Over 2.5
46%
Both to score
48%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–013.7%
- 1–111.6%
- 2–010.4%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–09.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
53%Possession60%
41%Territory26%
28%From set plays21%
0.10Chance quality0.09
6.7%Directness6.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Bradford, 3 for Barnsley. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 40 of 72 matches, not the full season.