League One · Matchweek 7
Reading
REA
Notts County
NOT
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Reading59%
Draw24%
Notts County18%
Expected goals
1.83 – 0.93
Over 2.5
51%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.2%
- 1–110.8%
- 2–010.4%
- 2–19.9%
- 0–07.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
48%Possession44%
29%Territory29%
23%From set plays35%
0.15Chance quality0.09
5.4%Directness4.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Reading, 3 for Notts County. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Notts County
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 40 of 72 matches, not the full season.