League One · Matchweek 7
Luton Town
LUT
Bradford City
BRA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Luton37%
Draw30%
Bradford32%
Expected goals
1.21 – 1.11
Over 2.5
40%
Both to score
48%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.3%
- 1–012.1%
- 0–011.3%
- 0–111.0%
- 2–18.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
55%Possession53%
28%Territory41%
34%From set plays28%
0.12Chance quality0.10
4.1%Directness6.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Luton, 3 for Bradford. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 40 of 72 matches, not the full season.