League One · Matchweek 7
Burton Albion
BUR
Mansfield Town
MAN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Burton41%
Draw29%
Mansfield31%
Expected goals
1.37 – 1.16
Over 2.5
46%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.8%
- 1–011.2%
- 0–19.4%
- 0–09.2%
- 2–18.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
47%Possession46%
34%Territory40%
23%From set plays24%
0.10Chance quality0.10
5.5%Directness7.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Burton, 4 for Mansfield. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 40 of 72 matches, not the full season.