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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

League One · Matchweek 7

· The Cherry Red Records Stadium

AFC Wimbledon

AFC

HTLive, HT

Milton Keynes Dons

MIL

Timeline

How it happened

  1. 15'Callum PatersonYellow card for Milton Keynes Dons at 15 minutes: Callum Paterson
  2. Ryan Johnson30'Yellow card for AFC Wimbledon at 30 minutes: Ryan Johnson

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Wimbledon37%
Draw28%
MK Dons35%

Expected goals

1.38 – 1.33

Over 2.5

50%

Both to score

56%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.4%
  • 1–09.5%
  • 0–19.1%
  • 2–18.3%
  • 1–28.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

Wimbledon3-4-3Starting shape3-1-4-2MK Dons
48%Possession45%
36%Territory33%
51%From set plays36%
0.09Chance quality0.12
7.1%Directness8.8%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 5 for Wimbledon, 4 for MK Dons.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 40 of 72 matches, not the full season.

The xG race14 shots
Cumulative expected goalsWimbledon 0.47 xG, MK Dons 0.50 xG over 90 minutes
  • Wimbledon0.47
  • MK Dons0.50
Final score —–—
Show data
Shots with expected-goal values
MinTeamxGOutcome
3'MK Dons0.04blocked
9'Wimbledon0.05off target
12'Wimbledon0.05off target
12'Wimbledon0.12blocked
12'Wimbledon0.02off target
12'Wimbledon0.10saved
19'MK Dons0.09off target
21'MK Dons0.05saved
22'MK Dons0.05off target
31'MK Dons0.03blocked
31'MK Dons0.18saved
32'MK Dons0.06off target
40'Wimbledon0.05off target
46'Wimbledon0.06blocked
Shot map0 scored
Shot map
  • Wimbledon (0/7)
  • MK Dons (0/7)

Marker area is expected-goal value. Filled markers are goals; outlines are attempts that did not score.

Show data
Every shot with location and expected-goal value
MinTeamxGBodySituationOutcome
3'MK Dons0.04right footset pieceblocked
9'Wimbledon0.05right footopen playoff target
12'Wimbledon0.05headset pieceoff target
12'Wimbledon0.12left footset pieceblocked
12'Wimbledon0.02headopen playoff target
12'Wimbledon0.10left footopen playsaved
19'MK Dons0.09headopen playoff target
21'MK Dons0.05right footfast breaksaved
22'MK Dons0.05headcorneroff target
31'MK Dons0.03left footfree kickblocked
31'MK Dons0.18right footopen playsaved
32'MK Dons0.06headcorneroff target
40'Wimbledon0.05headcorneroff target
46'Wimbledon0.06headset pieceblocked
MomentumWho was on top, minute by minute
Match momentumPressure through the match. Bars above the line favour Wimbledon, below favour MK Dons.
  • Wimbledon pressure
  • MK Dons pressure
Line-ups36 players
Head to headPossession, shots, discipline
WimbledonMK Dons
0.47Expected goals0.50
53Possession %47
7Shots7
1On target2
2Big chances1
3Corners3
170Passes150
62Pass accuracy %65
30.6Field tilt %est.35.3
1Fouls9
1Yellow cards1