Championship · Matchweek 28
Middlesbrough
MID
Wrexham
WRE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Middlesbrough67%
Draw20%
Wrexham13%
Expected goals
2.14 – 0.86
Over 2.5
57%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
-1.25
Most likely scorelines
- 2–011.5%
- 1–011.3%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.1%
- 3–07.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Wrexham get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
59%Possession53%
42%Territory36%
15%From set plays37%
0.11Chance quality0.08
5.0%Directness5.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Middlesbrough, 3 for Wrexham. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Middlesbrough
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 156 matches, not the full season.