Championship · Matchweek 28
Southampton
SOU
West Bromwich Albion
WBA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Southampton41%
Draw26%
West Brom33%
Expected goals
1.61 – 1.45
Over 2.5
58%
Both to score
62%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.2%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–08.0%
- 1–27.8%
- 0–17.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
53%Possession60%
38%Territory38%
14%From set plays12%
0.12Chance quality0.15
3.7%Directness3.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Southampton, 3 for West Brom. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 156 matches, not the full season.