Championship · Matchweek 28
Norwich City
NOR
Derby County
DER
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Norwich52%
Draw25%
Derby23%
Expected goals
1.77 – 1.14
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.1%
- 1–010.2%
- 2–19.8%
- 2–08.3%
- 0–16.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Norwich will have the ball; Derby will not mind.
55%Possession45%
39%Territory35%
15%From set plays22%
0.08Chance quality0.09
4.1%Directness7.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Norwich, 3 for Derby. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 156 matches, not the full season.