Championship · Matchweek 28
Millwall
MIL
Birmingham City
BIR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Millwall49%
Draw25%
Birmingham26%
Expected goals
1.73 – 1.23
Over 2.5
56%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.2%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–09.5%
- 2–07.6%
- 1–26.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Millwall will have the ball; Birmingham will not mind.
59%Possession49%
41%Territory34%
29%From set plays5%
0.13Chance quality0.13
7.2%Directness6.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Millwall, 3 for Birmingham. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Birmingham
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 156 matches, not the full season.