Championship · Matchweek 28
Burnley
BUR
Queens Park Rangers
QUE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Burnley30%
Draw27%
QPR43%
Expected goals
1.27 – 1.55
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.9%
- 0–19.7%
- 1–29.1%
- 1–07.7%
- 2–17.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
50%Possession45%
35%Territory35%
47%From set plays41%
0.16Chance quality0.16
4.3%Directness5.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Burnley, 3 for QPR. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Burnley
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 156 matches, not the full season.