Championship · Matchweek 27
Portsmouth
POR
Burnley
BUR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Portsmouth43%
Draw29%
Burnley29%
Expected goals
1.38 – 1.10
Over 2.5
44%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.8%
- 1–011.9%
- 0–09.6%
- 0–19.3%
- 2–18.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
51%Possession50%
29%Territory35%
52%From set plays47%
0.09Chance quality0.16
6.5%Directness4.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 5 for Portsmouth, 3 for Burnley. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Burnley
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 156 matches, not the full season.