Championship · Matchweek 27
Derby County
DER
Millwall
MIL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Derby23%
Draw24%
Millwall53%
Expected goals
1.21 – 1.86
Over 2.5
58%
Both to score
60%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.6%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–19.2%
- 0–27.9%
- 2–16.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Millwall will have the ball; Derby will not mind.
45%Possession59%
35%Territory41%
22%From set plays29%
0.09Chance quality0.13
7.4%Directness7.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Derby, 3 for Millwall. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 156 matches, not the full season.