Championship · Matchweek 27
Bristol City
BRI
Bolton Wanderers
BOL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Bristol City69%
Draw18%
Bolton13%
Expected goals
2.44 – 1.04
Over 2.5
67%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
-1.25
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.6%
- 2–09.4%
- 1–08.1%
- 1–17.8%
- 3–17.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Bristol City get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
42%Possession47%
33%Territory33%
33%From set plays9%
0.14Chance quality0.09
5.4%Directness6.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Bristol City, 3 for Bolton. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 156 matches, not the full season.