Championship · Matchweek 26
Stoke City
STK
Derby County
DER
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Stoke56%
Draw26%
Derby19%
Expected goals
1.65 – 0.88
Over 2.5
46%
Both to score
48%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–013.7%
- 1–111.5%
- 2–010.5%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–08.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Stoke will have the ball; Derby will not mind.
57%Possession45%
37%Territory35%
49%From set plays22%
0.09Chance quality0.09
4.3%Directness7.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Stoke, 3 for Derby. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 156 matches, not the full season.