Championship · Matchweek 26
Cardiff City
CAR
Middlesbrough
MID
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Cardiff16%
Draw20%
Middlesbrough64%
Expected goals
1.03 – 2.19
Over 2.5
62%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–29.9%
- 0–29.6%
- 0–19.3%
- 1–19.0%
- 1–37.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
52%Possession59%
37%Territory42%
22%From set plays15%
0.13Chance quality0.11
6.5%Directness5.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Cardiff, 3 for Middlesbrough. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Cardiff
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 156 matches, not the full season.