Championship · Matchweek 26
Bolton Wanderers
BOL
Southampton
SOU
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Bolton14%
Draw17%
Southampton69%
Expected goals
1.15 – 2.58
Over 2.5
71%
Both to score
63%
Fair handicap
1.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–29.3%
- 0–28.2%
- 1–37.9%
- 1–17.2%
- 0–16.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
47%Possession53%
33%Territory38%
9%From set plays14%
0.09Chance quality0.12
6.4%Directness3.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Bolton, 4 for Southampton. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 156 matches, not the full season.