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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Championship · Matchweek 25

Wrexham

WRE

Bolton Wanderers

BOL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Wrexham65%
Draw20%
Bolton15%

Expected goals

2.26 – 1.04

Over 2.5

63%

Both to score

58%

Fair handicap

-1.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 2–19.8%
  • 2–09.6%
  • 1–08.9%
  • 1–18.7%
  • 3–17.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Wrexham get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

53%Possession47%
36%Territory33%
37%From set plays9%
0.08Chance quality0.09
5.7%Directness6.4%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Wrexham, 3 for Bolton. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 156 matches, not the full season.