Championship · Matchweek 25
Southampton
SOU
Cardiff City
CAR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Southampton64%
Draw20%
Cardiff16%
Expected goals
2.18 – 1.04
Over 2.5
61%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.6%
- 1–09.3%
- 1–19.1%
- 3–17.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
53%Possession52%
38%Territory37%
14%From set plays22%
0.12Chance quality0.13
3.7%Directness6.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Southampton, 3 for Cardiff. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Cardiff
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 156 matches, not the full season.