Championship · Matchweek 25
Millwall
MIL
Wolverhampton Wanderers
WOL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Millwall48%
Draw26%
Wolves26%
Expected goals
1.61 – 1.14
Over 2.5
51%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.8%
- 1–010.8%
- 2–19.5%
- 2–08.0%
- 0–17.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
59%Possession53%
41%Territory36%
29%From set plays15%
0.13Chance quality0.09
7.2%Directness5.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Millwall, 4 for Wolves. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 156 matches, not the full season.