Championship · Matchweek 25
Derby County
DER
Blackburn Rovers
BLA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Derby46%
Draw26%
Blackburn28%
Expected goals
1.66 – 1.26
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.5%
- 1–09.5%
- 2–19.3%
- 2–07.1%
- 0–17.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
45%Possession40%
35%Territory28%
22%From set plays33%
0.09Chance quality0.09
7.4%Directness5.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Derby, 3 for Blackburn. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 156 matches, not the full season.