Championship · Matchweek 24
Derby County
DER
Sheffield United
SHU
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Derby24%
Draw25%
Sheff Utd51%
Expected goals
1.17 – 1.75
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.2%
- 0–110.0%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–28.1%
- 1–06.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Sheff Utd get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
45%Possession48%
35%Territory47%
22%From set plays60%
0.09Chance quality0.12
7.4%Directness7.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Derby, 4 for Sheff Utd. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 156 matches, not the full season.