Championship · Matchweek 23
Stoke City
STK
Wrexham
WRE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Stoke43%
Draw30%
Wrexham26%
Expected goals
1.27 – 0.94
Over 2.5
38%
Both to score
45%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–014.2%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–012.3%
- 0–110.2%
- 2–18.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
57%Possession53%
37%Territory36%
49%From set plays37%
0.09Chance quality0.08
4.3%Directness5.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Stoke, 3 for Wrexham. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 156 matches, not the full season.