Championship · Matchweek 23
Portsmouth
POR
Watford
WAT
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Portsmouth40%
Draw31%
Watford28%
Expected goals
1.20 – 0.97
Over 2.5
37%
Both to score
45%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–013.8%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–012.8%
- 0–111.0%
- 2–18.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Portsmouth get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
51%Possession43%
29%Territory31%
52%From set plays31%
0.09Chance quality0.10
6.5%Directness5.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 5 for Portsmouth, 3 for Watford. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 156 matches, not the full season.