Championship · Matchweek 23
Cardiff City
CAR
Millwall
MIL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Cardiff27%
Draw25%
Millwall48%
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.75
Over 2.5
58%
Both to score
61%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.0%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–18.8%
- 0–27.0%
- 2–16.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
52%Possession59%
37%Territory41%
22%From set plays29%
0.13Chance quality0.13
6.5%Directness7.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Cardiff, 3 for Millwall. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Cardiff
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 156 matches, not the full season.