Skip to content
Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Championship · Matchweek 23

Bolton Wanderers

BOL

Burnley

BUR

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Bolton28%
Draw23%
Burnley49%

Expected goals

1.50 – 2.01

Over 2.5

67%

Both to score

68%

Fair handicap

0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–19.3%
  • 1–29.1%
  • 2–26.8%
  • 2–16.6%
  • 0–16.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Burnley get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

47%Possession50%
33%Territory35%
9%From set plays47%
0.09Chance quality0.16
6.4%Directness4.3%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Bolton, 3 for Burnley. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 156 matches, not the full season.