Championship · Matchweek 22
Derby County
DER
Lincoln City
LIN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Derby50%
Draw24%
Lincoln26%
Expected goals
1.83 – 1.30
Over 2.5
59%
Both to score
62%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.6%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–08.6%
- 2–07.2%
- 1–26.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Lincoln get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
45%Possession38%
35%Territory28%
22%From set plays57%
0.09Chance quality0.11
7.4%Directness10.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Derby, 4 for Lincoln. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 156 matches, not the full season.