Championship · Matchweek 22
Burnley
BUR
Stoke City
STK
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Burnley33%
Draw29%
Stoke38%
Expected goals
1.18 – 1.29
Over 2.5
44%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.0%
- 0–111.2%
- 1–010.1%
- 0–09.7%
- 1–28.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
50%Possession57%
35%Territory37%
47%From set plays49%
0.16Chance quality0.09
4.3%Directness4.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Burnley, 3 for Stoke. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Burnley
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 156 matches, not the full season.