Championship · Matchweek 21
Sheffield United
SHU
Burnley
BUR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Sheff Utd49%
Draw25%
Burnley26%
Expected goals
1.69 – 1.18
Over 2.5
54%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.4%
- 1–010.1%
- 2–19.6%
- 2–07.8%
- 0–16.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
40%Possession47%
38%Territory36%
26%From set plays16%
0.09Chance quality0.07
6.8%Directness6.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Sheff Utd, 4 for Burnley. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 83 matches, not the full season.