Championship · Matchweek 21
Cardiff City
CAR
Southampton
SOU
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Cardiff25%
Draw24%
Southampton51%
Expected goals
1.23 – 1.83
Over 2.5
58%
Both to score
60%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.7%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–19.1%
- 0–27.7%
- 2–16.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
52%Possession53%
37%Territory38%
22%From set plays14%
0.13Chance quality0.12
6.5%Directness3.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Cardiff, 4 for Southampton. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Cardiff
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 156 matches, not the full season.