Championship · Matchweek 21
Cardiff City
CAR
Southampton
SOU
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Cardiff30%
Draw25%
Southampton45%
Expected goals
1.43 – 1.74
Over 2.5
60%
Both to score
63%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.7%
- 1–29.1%
- 0–17.8%
- 2–17.2%
- 2–26.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Southampton get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
65%Possession57%
45%Territory34%
15%From set plays30%
0.10Chance quality0.10
6.1%Directness3.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Cardiff, 4 for Southampton.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 83 matches, not the full season.