Championship · Matchweek 21
Bolton Wanderers
BOL
Wrexham
WRE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Bolton31%
Draw28%
Wrexham41%
Expected goals
1.23 – 1.43
Over 2.5
49%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.4%
- 0–110.4%
- 1–08.8%
- 1–28.7%
- 0–08.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
51%Possession50%
35%Territory33%
25%From set plays39%
0.09Chance quality0.08
6.7%Directness5.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Bolton, 4 for Wrexham. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 83 matches, not the full season.