Championship · Matchweek 21
Blackburn Rovers
BLA
Derby County
DER
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Blackburn39%
Draw27%
Derby34%
Expected goals
1.50 – 1.39
Over 2.5
54%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.8%
- 1–08.7%
- 2–18.6%
- 0–18.0%
- 1–27.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
40%Possession45%
28%Territory35%
33%From set plays22%
0.09Chance quality0.09
5.6%Directness7.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Blackburn, 3 for Derby. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Blackburn
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 156 matches, not the full season.