Championship · Matchweek 21
Blackburn Rovers
BLA
Derby County
DER
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Blackburn50%
Draw26%
Derby23%
Expected goals
1.62 – 1.05
Over 2.5
49%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.8%
- 1–011.7%
- 2–19.6%
- 2–08.8%
- 0–07.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
58%Possession58%
42%Territory51%
11%From set plays24%
0.08Chance quality0.06
4.6%Directness5.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Blackburn, 3 for Derby. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 83 matches, not the full season.