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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Championship · Matchweek 20

Southampton

SOU

Burnley

BUR

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Southampton63%
Draw21%
Burnley17%

Expected goals

2.17 – 1.08

Over 2.5

62%

Both to score

59%

Fair handicap

-1.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 2–19.9%
  • 2–09.2%
  • 1–19.1%
  • 1–09.0%
  • 3–17.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Burnley get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

53%Possession50%
38%Territory35%
14%From set plays47%
0.12Chance quality0.16
3.7%Directness4.3%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Southampton, 3 for Burnley. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 156 matches, not the full season.