Championship · Matchweek 20
Preston North End
PRE
Portsmouth
POR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Preston41%
Draw28%
Portsmouth30%
Expected goals
1.38 – 1.15
Over 2.5
46%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.8%
- 1–011.3%
- 0–19.3%
- 0–09.2%
- 2–18.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
41%Possession44%
38%Territory40%
45%From set plays23%
0.15Chance quality0.09
6.4%Directness8.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Preston, 2 for Portsmouth. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 83 matches, not the full season.